Investors were almost mystified by the idea of a Donald Trump presidency four years ago. Stock futures nosedived the night he was elected, only to turn right around and start to rally.
Today, markets have a clearer sense of what Trump will bring to the table in a second term even if they'll still have to contend with issues like theAnd Lori Calvasina, head of US equity strategy for RBC Capital Markets, says some groups of stocks are tracking Trump's reelection odds in betting markets. In broad terms that's because ofproposed corporate tax increase, which, if implemented as proposed, would reduce S&P 500 annual profits by about 9%.
"The performance of the commodity and cyclical sectors that fared best after Trump won in 2016 – Energy, Financials, and Industrials – has been inversely correlated with Biden's chances," she wrote in a note to clients, while communication, consumer discretionary, and tech stocks tend to rise when people Trump's odds are falling.
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