Column: Is the market on the right track for U.S. corn, soy plantings? -Braun

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Greatly improved profitability levels have lifted U.S. farmers’ enthusiasm for the 2021 planting season, but market watchers’ anticipation of U.S. government planting numbers due on Wednesday has reached a fever pitch, and the trade estimates in particular deserve some attention...

FORT COLLINS, Colo. - Greatly improved profitability levels have lifted U.S. farmers’ enthusiasm for the 2021 planting season, but market watchers’ anticipation of U.S. government planting numbers due on Wednesday has reached a fever pitch, and the trade estimates in particular deserve some attention.

On average, analysts peg U.S. corn plantings at 93.2 million acres, which would be a five-year high and up 2.6% on the year. Soybean area is seen at 90 million acres, the second-largest on record and up 8.3% from 2020. Since at least 2005, analysts have never under-guessed both corn and soybean planting intentions. They have over-guessed both in only two of the years, 2010 and 2018. In the other 14, the directional misses were opposites, meaning if the trade was too high on corn, it was too low on beans, and vice versa.

The trend on trade estimates would seemingly indicate that the trade has made a rare underestimation of soybean acres ahead of Wednesday’s report. In the last 12 years, the trade underestimated March soybean intentions only twice . December 2021 corn futures started to rally with the nearby contracts last August, and by November, they had distinguished themselves versus most prior years. By the end of the year, the 2021 contract was at least 15% higher than at the same point for the 2017 and 2018 ones, and that margin had been maintained through at least early March.

Analysts could also be set up for a miss on corn acres given that the 2.5 million-acre range of estimates is 1 million below the recent three-year average for this report. In 2017, corn intentions came in just a handful of acres below the range, which was also 2.5 million acres.

 

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USDAFoodSafety planting intentions report along with quarterly grain stocks will be published on Wednesday at noon EDT (1600 GMT). Analysts see March 1 corn, soy and wheat stocks at multi-year lows.

Where they gonna sell the beans China isnt buying nearly as much as before 🥱 Wonder how many farmers won’t be planting crops for the first time because they lost land from Dotard’s failed trade war.

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