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The US dollar advanced from two-week lows on Friday after data showed the world’s largest economy created far more jobs than expected, raising the chances of a larger Federal Reserve interest rate increase at the March policy meeting.

The dollar index, a gauge of its value against six major currencies, rose 0.1% to 95.446, after falling to a two-week low of 95.136 earlier amid a resurgent euro.

But the dollar was still down 1.8% on the week, on pace for its largest weekly percentage decline since November 2020.Data for December was revised higher to show 510 000 jobs created instead of the previously reported 199 000.Estimates ranged from a decrease of 400 000 to a gain of 385 000 jobs. “It is the 0.7% month-on-month gain in wages that is most hawkish,” wrote Daragh Maher, head of FX strategy, at HSBC. “This helps counter dollar-bearish real income squeeze concerns and the stagflation theme, and will likely energize FOMC hawks.”US two-year and five-year yields, both of which reflect interest rate expectations, rose to 1.2970%, the highest since late February 2020, and 1.79%, its best level since July 2019, respectively.

The probability of a 50 basis-point increase next month rose to nearly 40%, from just 18% before the data release.It was up 1.7% on the week, on track for its best weekly performance since late March 2020, benefiting from a hawkish turn by the European Central Bank on Thursday.

 

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