NEW YORK —Rising inflation in the United States and around the world is forcing investors to assess the likely effects on both “risky” assets and “safe” assets .
During a “risk-on period,” when investors are optimistic, stock prices DJIA, -0.68% GDOW, -0.79% and bond yields TMUBMUSD30Y, 2.245% will rise and bond prices will fall, resulting in a market loss for bonds; and during a risk-off period, when investors are pessimistic, prices and yields will follow an inverse pattern. Similarly, when the economy is booming, stock prices and bond yields tend to rise while bond prices fall, whereas in a recession, the reverse is true.
Inflation hurts equities too More recent examples also show that equities are hurt when bond yields rise in response to higher inflation or the expectation that higher inflation will lead to monetary-policy tightening. Even most of the much-touted tech and growth stocks aren’t immune to an increase in long-term interest rates, because these are “long-duration” assets whose dividends lie further in the future, making them more sensitive to a higher discount factor .
More to the point, if inflation continues to be higher than it was over the past few decades , a 60/40 portfolio would induce massive losses. The task for investors, then, is to figure out another way to hedge the 40% of their portfolio that is in bonds. The second option is to invest in gold GC00, -0.06% and other precious metals whose prices tend to rise when inflation is higher .
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So will market timing. If you hedge too far against inflation and the market plummets you will be worse of than if you stayed with 60/40.
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