The Bank of Canada is expected to raise its key interest rate tomorrow and all eyes are on the housing market.
First some background. The Bank of Canada raised its rate once in August, 2017 and three times in 2018, a 1% increase that brought the overnight lending rate to 1.75%, the highest in the 2010 decade.Price increases there prompted the B.C. government to impose a 15% Foreign Buyer’s Tax in 2016. Many believe this just served to push foreign investors to Toronto, sending prices in the GTA up almost 25% from 2016 to 2017.
Rather it was after the Ontario Fair Housing Plan in April of 2017, that prices and sales growth halted. Three months after the policy, prices dropped more than 20% from their April peak across the GTA, cutting more than $100,000 off the average price of a home. There were small movements in prices after rate hikes, but these could be due to seasonal variations, the study found. For example, the biggest drop was in November 2018, when prices declined 2.35% after the bank’s October announcement. The biggest gain was in February 2018 when prices grew 4.21% after the bank’s January hike.With bond yields at pre-pandemic highs, fixed-rates are already on the rise, even without a Bank hike. RATESDOTCA says five-year terms now range from 2.69% to 3.09%.