Analysis: Confusion, but not panic, reigns in global finance in Russia’s wake

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Western allies’ sanctions against Russia have started to blow back in the form of large potential losses for their own banks, companies and investors, often in unexpected ways. In the past, such fires have been precursors to financial crises.

could face nearly $2 billion in unexpected bills after trading in their U.S. listed shares was suspended after the sanctions. That could trigger a clause in their debt agreements that makes some of their bonds redeemable. Yandex said it doesn’t have the money to pay investors.

Former Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Timothy Massad was deeply involved as a Treasury official in the U.S. government’s handling of the 2008 financial crisis. Echoing Schamis, he believes that the system is well able to absorb the shock and he hasn't noticed anything that raises serious concerns about financial stability.

Even so, the situation is rapidly evolving. “I don’t think this is a stable situation,” said Massad. "What concerns me the most is how long this goes on and whether something happens in the war that triggers a much bigger shock or triggers panic."Some signs of stress have started to appear in markets, with investors shedding riskier assets. Banks are getting nervous about lending to each other and hoarding dollars, which are getting more expensive for foreigners to procure.

For now, the word on the Street is more of confusion than panic. People are working through what the raft of sanctions against Russian banks, assets and individuals means for their dealings and holdings, market participants say. "The danger comes from the fact that you have long intermediation chains that make it difficult to know what exactly the exposure and the risks are," Massad says.Reporting by Paritosh Bansal in NEW YORK; Graphic by Saikat Chatterjee in LONDON; Editing by Edward TobinOpinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

 

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