‘The housing market is in the early stages of a substantial downshift': Home sales may drop 25% by the end of summer, according to this analyst

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“The housing market is in the early stages of a substantial downshift in activity, which will trigger a steep decline in the rate of increase of home prices,” wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist and founder of Pantheon Macroeconomics.

The popular spring home-buying season is just ramping up. But one analyst is warning that it could be a bust.

As evidence of this expected slowdown in home sales, Shepherdson pointed to mortgage demand. The most recent data on mortgage applications from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows that the number of applications for loans used to purchase homes is down more than 8% compared to a year ago. Comparatively, demand for refinancing has dropped nearly 50% versus last year.

“That’s a huge increase, even for households sitting on savings accumulated during the pandemic—a one-time increase in savings can’t finance an increase in mortgage payments for the next 30 years—and it will push demand down a good deal further,” he wrote.

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The “Free Market GOP”, now wants Biden & tax payers to to spend billions to fix the Supply Chain created by private companies. 🤬

so much bs ... theyve dropped an average of 8% in every ressecion since the 1950s hes living the 2007 crisis everyone lives the last crisis.. pathatic rookie

Existing homes does not equal new housing.

They’re bloated by more then 25%.

Is Florida included? The housing market has skyrocketed here and we're counting on a downshift

Wrong- real estate is made up of thousands of regional economies. You cannot appy a macro statement to all. Here is So cal. There are no homes for sale and there is always demand so a drop of 25% is not applicable. Sure therebare many other neighborhoods as well.

Downshift = Crash. It’s 2008 again and 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 are diverting attention to Ukraine.

but prices will be up significatnly anyway.

LoganMohtashami you’re being summoned

'Home Sales' not prices. There's like 4000 homes in my island community in FL. Maybe less than a dozen are listed.

BEARS 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

Not what I'm seeing or hearing where I live.

Not in NJ

Stop investor

Massive collaps coming. Just like the movie the big short. They arr selling all these overoriced mortgages to people who can't afford them. They changed nothing, after bailout. Repacakeged the same thingvthat caused iit all and renamed it!

The latest round of thievery is ending?

This is what scares me, the thoughts I have across the day has changed drastically. ' How can I afford my Dad's medicines' as opposed to 'What's the next step to following my dreams?'. Dreams have taken a backseat unless I am out of this abyss. Pls check pinned tweet. Help. RT.

Who can afford a house now?

That’s because the market cannot support the inflated prices anymore and as sales fall off homes will come down in price as it becomes more of a buyers market.

What's the photo all about?

So good 25% ac. Finc.buc.much market.

I'm a bit more bullish I say 40% drop

They’ve been saying this for at least 5 years now. Eventually, they’ll be right. Maybe.

Depends on the market. As people return to the office, demand in cities is growing and the rush to the far burbs will crash. Even three days a week, a long commute stinks

ABX subprime mortgage backed securities index is currently down over 6% since last year. 2008 housing market crash was down 3%.

especially in Ukraine.

“The cure for high prices, is high prices.” Anyone buying a home with 5% down this spring will be underwater in a year.

Hahahahahaha… Wrong

There’s no way mortgage rates rise more than a half a point in the next 24 months… The government has way too many negative things occurring right now… To have the housing market collapse again...Because trust me they fuck with interest rates and this shits falling apart

How when there is not enough supply? And so much demand? Literally 10-20 buyers for every one home available! I think the housing market has one more super boom… then a small down turn..

OK I will buy that house. No matter what the price is. No inspection needed. Cash buyer.

SELL SELL SELL!

Lmao what State? California?

The housing market is out of control. Millions of Americans are homeless or live in substandard housing while foreigners buy up real estate only to rent it out or hold it as an investment. The American dream has become a nightmare

Thank Christ this market has been tulip-bulb braindead for over a year now

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