In an online media briefing, COL Chief Technical Analyst Juanis Barredo said the market is on an extended downtrend and “oversold rebounds can offer only brief trade windows until down trend formations can be clearly overcome.”Based on a COL survey of retail investors, a majority expects inflation to continue to rise until the end of the year and sees high inflation and global recession as the greatest risks for equities over the next six months.
However, despite weaker sentiment, he noted that a majority of investors remain heavily invested in the stock market and 71 percent actually expect to increase their stock exposure in the next three to six months.This jives with COL Chief Equity Strategist April Lynn Tan’s assessment that “the worst could be over soon because inflation, interest rates, and dollar-to-peso rate most likely peaked.”
Tan also noted that the Philippines has learned to live with Covid and is not likely to impose strict lockdowns as it did before. While the new administration has assembled an impressive economic team, Tan said the government has limited fiscal space due to its high debt to gross domestic product ratio and huge deficit.
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