500 index of American stocks, for instance, is back around the level it was at the start of June. Yet with a little less than five months of 2022 remaining, it would take a turnaround of astonishing proportions to avoid a torrid year in financial markets. The period’s distinguishing characteristics are already clear: the slump has been unusually deep and unusually broad.All Country World Index of global stocks would have lost 15%, the lowest return since 2008.
, expected interest-rate rises and a belief that the economic situation will deteriorate. An investment in theGlobal World Government Bond Index would have lost 13% so far in 2022, making this the first year since 1986, when the index was established, in which there have been double-digit falls in both stocks and bonds globally.
Moreover, equity markets have been battered almost everywhere. Stocks in Europe, Japan and emerging markets are all down. As a result, there are precious few winners. The Bloomberg Commodity Index, comprising energy, agricultural and industrial commodities, is up by 18% since January. Oil and gas companies have been bolstered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the massive disruption to oil and gas supplies that followed.
If you were presented with this degree of misery 20 years ago, you might have expected the odd mainstream financial firm to start looking wobbly. Perhaps the most unusual thing of all is how serious distress so far has been largely confined to two groups—both outside mainstream Western finance.; sales of which have cratered this year, driven by concerns about the financial health of the companies and the economic impact of protracted covid-19 lockdowns.
The big question for the rest of the year is whether the pockets of distress will continue to be isolated. Already the strain in emerging markets, which are confronted with rising global interest rates, as well as elevated food and energy prices, is becoming clear. As of late July, around 36% of issuers on the JPMorgan Chase Emerging Market Bond Index had yields above 10%, a figure which peaked at only 29% during the market panic in March 2020.
Hey, the Economists. This is not a good sentence for investors. Not, I quote, 'taking a breather,' but 'wating investors or so-called 'apes' who are willing to buy stocks which are getting expensive.'
After A Frantic Sell-Off
The crisis is coming, and it will start from financial sector, going through real estate, constructions, production and later, in services. Keep your cash ready or invest it in double digits randaments.
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