Liquefied natural gas prices in Asia are now at about $50 per million British thermal units. On an energy-equivalent basis, gas was at about double the price of diesel as of early August, with high-sulphur fuel oil and coal cheaper still, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.
IEA’s view was echoed by Damien Courvalin, head of energy research at Goldman Sachs, who expects gas-to-oil switching to account for 1.5 million barrels a day of additional demand this winter, compared to a million barrels a day last year. Demand will come from the power sector as well as industries, he said in a Bloomberg interview.
The shift from gas is a setback in the global push for cleaner energy. Many countries turned to natural gas as part of decarbonisation efforts, as it’s the cleanest fossil fuel. Dirtier alternatives from coal to liquid fuel will make it more difficult for nations to reach their climate goals. “Restarting such plants will depend on just how well they were shut down and then maintained,” FGE’s Sawyer said. “Do not expect such plants to come on overnight.”
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