A Friday drop left the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average with their biggest monthly losses since March 2020. And it was the worst September performance for both indexes since 2002. Seasonally inclined investors may wonder what that means for October.
But first, how does the month just ended stack up? The S&P 500 SPX, -1.51% fell 9.34%, while the Dow DJIA, -1.71% dropped 8.84% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, -1.51% declined 10.5%. The Nasdaq’s drop marked its worst September performance since 2008.Sample size is limited. Not counting the current month, the S&P 500 has seen a September decline of 7% or more 11 times, according to data going back to 1928. The Dow has dropped 7% or more in September 13 times based on data back to 1928.
S&P 500 Seasonal patterns, however, are only a guide. As MarketWatch’s Isabel Wang noted in a Friday report, many strategists are skeptical of October’s reputation as “bear killer.” They argued that a macroeconomic environment dominated by central banks aggressively tightening monetary policy in a bid to wring out inflation is likely to overshadow favorable seasonal factors.
Feds will let us know Monday 🥹
What is the October surprise?
October isn't going to be the end of it. With Hurricane Ian, russia/ukraine, earnings not being met, demand not being met, and of course, the recession they've wanted to deny that we've been in for a month or so now.
October is going to be pretty bad too, earnings will be bad, we must get ready