Back on October 14th we reviewed why a post-bubble contraction would be the proper time to buy gold mining stocks for fundamental reasons . *
But… gold stocks. They would not participate in such a party atmosphere in any way other than market relief, due to technical oversold conditions and of course, over-bearish sentiment. But let me assure you that as of 10:20 US Eastern time on November 4th, the macro fundamentals are not yet part of the rationale for a rally.
First the not so bad , as GLD/SPY bounces in an attempt to reclaim the moving averages and its uptrend. I believe the risk is weighted toward stocks vs. gold, but the ratio must reclaim its uptrend to back that. GLD/USO is not at all constructive yet for the gold mining industry. Nominal oil is also busting bullish out of a daily pattern. Oil is a major gold mining cost driver. Do the math.
Finally, GLD/SLV shows the old monetary man vs. his more inflation sensitive, industrially utilized little bro, silver. It's looking like a breakdown, which ironically is a positive internal indicator for the precious metals sector as well as many other markets, but in its pro-inflation, pro-cyclical signaling also would indicate negative gold mining fundamentals if it breaks down.