After three years of a wildly unbalanced housing market, it’s tempting to hope 2023 will at last bring normalization. But the market remains far from normal, even if it’s no longer going to extremes. Rates have fallen from the peaks of October and November, but with continued upward pressure from the Federal Reserve the lows we’re seeing now could just be the eye of the hurricane. And major economic or geopolitical changes could, as they did this past year, totally upend rate forecasts.
We expect mortgage delinquencies to rise as disposable income levels and consumer savings diminish. However, given the default management toolkit and large amounts of home equity, we are unlikely to see a material increase in foreclosure activity that leads to distressed property sales.
Multifamily’s underlying solid fundamentals over the last 10 years delivered an average annual total return of over 9%. We expect multifamily to perform above average in 2023 despite economic headwinds and ongoing capital market disruptions. Multifamily real estate is one of the best asset classes for hedging inflation. Investors will wait for the multifamily market to stabilize.2023 will see the continuation of the suburban migration. Smaller cities will be winners in 2023.
earlier this year and we look forward to continuing to work with the Biden administration and lawmakers in both parties in Congress to implement policies that allow for the development of desperately needed housing.Over the last few years, the multifamily industry has seen record demand and surging rental rates. In a recent survey conducted by Yardi Matrix, the average asking rent rose, while the national occupancy rate remained strong at 95.6% this past October.
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