Trouble may be brewing in the second half of this year, but there’s a window for a stock-market rally during the first six months of 2023, in the view of Stifel chief equity strategist Barry Bannister.
“2023 may be a year of 2 halves, with the S&P 500 peaking mid-2023,” wrote Bannister. “The S&P 500 in late 2023 may give back some or all of 2023 gains.” Read: Why stock-market bulls are ‘woefully myopic’ about S&P 500 profit growth — even before the impact of a potential recessionWhile Bannister does not yet see a recession in earnings per share, or EPS, for the S&P 500 in the first half of 2023, he cautioned that in the second of the year, the benchmark may face a slowdown in EPS that’s similar to 2012 or 2015-2016.
Investors have been anxious about a potential recession in 2023, fearing that the Fed’s rapid pace of rate hikes in 2022 and continued monetary tightening this year could lead to a hard landing for the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, Stifel has forecast that headline readings from the U.S. consumer-price index will fall to 3.5% on a year-over-basis by the end of the third quarter, Bannister’s note said. Headline inflation ran as high as 9.1% in the 12 months through June, falling to 7.1% in November.
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