International Finance: Davos 2023: geopolitics gets real

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If there was an underlying theme to Davos 2020, it was the environment and Swedish activist Greta Thunburg was its star. If there was an underlying theme to Davos 2022, it was the Ukraine conflict and its consequences, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr...

These themes are different, of course, from the official conference topics, but buried even in the formal programmesThis year’s conference, for example, is tagged “Cooperation in a Fragmented World”, which sounds to me like a way of putting the most positive spin possible the reality. I don’t suppose they could have gone with, or the more plaintive, “Why can’t we just get along?”, but that might be closer to the truth.

The 2022 theme at the Summer Davos held only eight months ago was “History at a Turning Point: Government Policies and Business Strategies”. Or, to put it another way, “” In some ways, the 2023 theme derives from this bewilderment. This is the most complex, disparate and cross-cutting set of challenges that I can remember in the 40 years that I have been paying attention to such things.Normally, the Global Risks Report asks participants to do a simple thing: categorise their top risks, and consequently, it isn’t so much of a forum report as a report on the views of participants. And it should be saidThe most cited failing has, almost inevitably, been around the issue of climate change.

And it’s easy to see the logic here: resource competition leads to resource shortages, leads to global competition, causing global cooperation with issues of global concern like climate change to suffer. The same sort of logic is evident in geoeconomic confrontation; evidence of that issue has become very clear with things like restrictions on the international sale of computer chips. But it’s visible too in more basic issues like water stress.

 

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