The Global ICE Industry Cliff Is Here

As a management consultant, I spend most of my working life playing with numbers and math in the areas of business development and finance. My analysis goals have always been to make use of data and computer models to better understand industry trends. With BEVs starting to go mainstream, we now have enough information to make some fascinating predictions.The chart above outlines actual and projected global automotive industry sales for BEVs, ICE cars, and total industry production.

As you can see, the overall auto industry has declined from when it peaked in 2017 due to the pandemic and chip shortage before it started to recover in 2021. This chart/model is conservative in predicting industry growth at 1.6% y/y going forward and BEV growth at 50% for 2023 . I also adjusted future BEV growth down starting in 2024 by 2% y/y respecting how it becomes increasingly difficult to grow a larger fleet vs. a smaller one.

The trends in internal combustion sales only began to diverge from total industry sales in 2020, with 2021 being the first year since 2017 that the overall industry grew while ICE car sales continued their decline. This trend accelerated in 2022 and the model supports how this trend will not only continue but accelerate significantly starting right now. Putting numbers on it, the drop in ICE vehicle demand will mean 2.5 million fewer vehicles this year, 4 million fewer in 2024, 6.

Please note the growth percentages and volumes below are based on actual data. Percentages are not cumulative, but per year over the past 7 years! 2022 change vs 2015 is the difference between total cars sold in 2022 vs 2015 .

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