I would rarely doubt an analyst’s smarts, but they all ended up following companies that needed money and never liked to stick their necks out and tell you how they really felt. Most recommendations were buys and all analysts’ target prices gravitated around a very narrow range. As the years went by, I found them less and less useful.All the investment courses I took before and after I started my career talked about the efficiency of the market. But it really isn’t.
But with about 50 or 60 various panics since then, I’ve learned that going the other way against panicked sellers is a pretty good way to make money. Panicked sellers don’t think rationally, don’t sell for fundamental reasons and, well, panic. Buyers can step in and get bargains. If they have enough time, they can usually do pretty well. Royal Bank of Canada shares traded for $3.58 each on the day of the 1987 crash. They are $130 now, and pay a $5.28 annual dividend to boot.
These companies can be harder to find. They may not trade much. They may not pay dividends. They may not make the news for 10 years, after which their strong investment performance might finally get noticed. But they are out there. Before buying any stock, an investor should look at how the share count has grown over the past 10 years. We certainly try to avoid companies that consider their stock like an ATM and issue shares too often.
Great points. “Before buying any stock, an investor should look at how the share count has grown (or not) over the past 10 years. We certainly try to avoid companies that consider their stock like an ATM and issue shares too often.”
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