Data points: Housing downturn expected despite better market performance

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Any market momentum is likely to be cut short by the Bank of Canada's interest rate moves, writes Bryan Yu

B.C.’s resale market performance strengthened in May with higher home sales and prices as conditions favoured sellers.

Sales increased across most of B.C.’s markets, including the Fraser Valley , Kootenay , Victoria and Chilliwack . The bulk of net growth reflected higher Greater Vancouver real estate board sales . In contrast, Vancouver Island reported a 4.5-per-cent monthly declines in sales, pausing growing momentum.

Market momentum is likely to be cut short as Bank of Canada hikes hit short-term variable borrowing costs. Fixed-rate mortgage costs have already moved up. This will curb demand and cut into both sales and listings once again, while capping prices. Meanwhile, underlying demand is strong as immigration flows remain robust and ahead of year-ago patterns, and the economy remains resilient.

Among census metropolitan areas , Vancouver reported a decline of 45.1 per cent in housing starts in May to an annualized 27,139 units, reversing an increase of nearly 36 per cent in April. This drove the provincial decline. Abbotsford-Mission saw housing starts skyrocket by 409.5 per cent, while they leaped by 386 per cent in Chilliwack. In Victoria, housing starts increased by 64.9 per cent and in Kelowna, starts were up 44.8 per cent during the month.

 

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