Kitco daily macro-economic/business digest - June 30

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Survey shows production costs a concern for ag economists

The U.S. Supreme Court is set to issue a ruling on a controversial case involving student loan forgiveness. Several states have filed a case against President Joe Biden's administration, contending that the effort to relieve approximately $430 billion in student loan debt oversteps his authority. This ruling is among the last ones expected as the court's session draws to a close. The initial arguments for the case were heard in February.

Survey shows production costs a concern for ag economists. The Ag Economists' Monthly Monitor, a new survey of nearly 50 agricultural economists from across the country, is a joint effort between the University of Missouri and Farm Journal. The June monitor shows the perceived financial health of U.S. agriculture has moved slightly lower over the past year, and economists expect that trend to continue over the next 12 months. Details below.

Sens. Tammy Baldwin and Roger Marshall introduced the Reliable Rail Service Act. More in Congress section. Senate Republicans appear to have a favorable chance of regaining the majority in 2024. However, the results of primaries in West Virginia, Montana, and Arizona could greatly influence this outcome. More in Politics & Elections section.

The Federal Reserve typically prioritizes core inflation, which disregards volatile food and energy prices, over other components. In May, core prices rose by 0.3%, with the 12-month core inflation rate recording at 4.6%, slightly lower than the anticipated 4.7%. Personal income rose by 0.4% in May, identical to forecasts, while personal consumption expenditures only increased by 0.1%, falling short of the expected 0.2% rise. When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending didn't change in May after recording a 0.6% increase in April.

States once awash in cash now face deficits as market volatility and population shifts lead to a reversal of fortunes. Link to more via Bloomberg. • Is smoke from wildfires affecting crop yields? Mark Jeschke, Ph.D., Agronomy Manager for Corteva's Pioneer, writes about this topic .• Wildfires in western North America have gotten worse in recent years and will almost certainly continue to increase in frequency and intensity.

• Based on what is known about the effects of reduced solar radiation and ozone on crops, it's very plausible that wildfire smoke could cause reductions in crop yields. — Sanctioned Russian cargo ships are increasingly using Turkey as a strategic hub for transporting weaponry and other wartime provisions, putting a spotlight on the difficulty of enforcing international maritime transport sanctions. Shipping records viewed by the Wall Street Journal reveal a high frequency of Russian vessel visits to Turkish ports since the invasion of Ukraine, with over 100 stops on Turkey's coast since May 2022.

— Lavrov: West's attitude two Black Sea grain deal ‘outrageous'. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov described the West's attitude to the Black Sea grain deal as"outrageous," noting if leaders were worried about global food security, they would unblock Russian fertilizer supplies frozen at European ports. Lavrov reiterated that as it stands now, Russia sees no grounds to extend the deal beyond July 17.

An illustration of the extent of China's financial influence is its Belt and Road Initiative, an infrastructure plan which was, in part, funded by these reserves. Moreover, Setser points out that despite domestic debt problems, China remains a massive global creditor due to its substantial accumulation of foreign exchange.

— Interior Dept. nixes call to limit and phasedown oil and gas production on federal lands, waters. The U.S. Department of Interior has turned down a request from the Center for Biological Diversity to limit and phase down oil and gas production on federal lands and waters. This proposal asked the agency to establish maximum production levels for such activities and progressively reduce them.

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