Kitco daily macro-economic/business digest - July 18

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Kitco daily macro-economic/business digest - July 18 gold Russia China

In Today's Digital Newspaper Donald Trump has announced that he received a"target letter" from Special Counsel Jack Smith, indicating that he's a criminal target in the ongoing investigation concerning allegations of attempts to undermine the 2020 election.

Goldman drops recession odds. The likelihood of a U.S. recession soon appears to be falling, according to Goldman Sachs. The investment bank cut the probability of an economic contraction in the next 12 months to 20% from 25%.U.S. companies have obtained some degree of relief from a global tax deal via new rules brokered by the Treasury Department.

House Democrats are contemplating how to assertively advance their priorities on the upcoming farm bill. Some outside observers are wondering if this is a Democratic member end-around House Ag ranking member David Scott. More in Policy section. China tells U.S. climate envoy to be ‘pragmatic and positive' towards China. But this from Trivium China:"The U.S. won't meet its climate financing commitments because the U.S. Congress won't approve the funds. And the U.S. may very well pull out of Paris if a Republican becomes president in 2025. Politics in the U.S. won't allow for better relations with China. Chinese leaders know this, and so are preparing for long-term struggle with the U.S.

Bank of America posted better-than-expected quarterly results, sending its shares higher in premarket trading. U.S. companies have obtained some degree of relief from a global tax deal via new rules brokered by the Treasury Department. These rules extend the timeline for companies, allowing them until 2026 before other nations can begin levying new taxes on corporations considered as having underpaid taxes in the U.S. This revised agreement ensures increased certainty for businesses.

• Shale drilling in the U.S. is experiencing a rapid decline in rig utilization, reminiscent of the Covid-19 pandemic's peak phase, despite favorable oil prices, the WSJ reports. The situation reveals a stark division between private and public operators. Private companies accelerated their rig installations as the pandemic subsided, but have exhausted many of their prime wells, necessitating a slowdown.

• NWS weather outlook: Lengthy & dangerous heat wave to continue in the Southwest, South Central U.S., and South Florida... ...Flash flooding & severe weather in portions of the Nation's Heartland and the East, headlined by a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall in the parts of the Lower Ohio & Tennessee Valleys... ...Tropical Storm Calvin weakening on approach to Hawaii, but heavy rains and tropical storm force wind gusts still expected... ...

U.S. national intelligence officer and Russia expert Fiona Hill said:"This is very deliberate on Putin's part," she said Monday, during a Council on Foreign Relations event on Ukraine."He is weaponizing food, no question." CHINA UPDATE — The Biden administration is reportedly planning to restrict new U.S. investments in China, specifically targeting advanced sectors like semiconductors, quantum computing, and artificial intelligence. However, this initiative is likely not to be enforced until next year, due to bureaucratic procedures. U.S. officials are planning to finalize the proposal for this program, which has faced considerable delays, by the end of August.

— China's pork imports slowed a little in June but still well ahead of year-ago. China imported 130,000 MT of pork in June. While that was down 7.1% from May, it was up 4.5% from June 2022. Through the first half of 2023, China imported 940,000 MT of pork, up 16.5% from the same period last year.

— USTR extends comment period on USMCA Competitiveness Committee efforts. The U.S. Trade Representative Office has extended the deadline for public comments on the work scope of the North American Competitiveness Committee until Aug. 17. This committee, established under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement , concentrates on workforce development and creating strategies for collaboration during trade-related emergencies.

Kerry's visit signals a possible de-escalation in tension between the two countries; Wang expressed China's readiness for enhanced dialogue with the United States and their eagerness to address global climate change together. Importantly, Wang noted that the climate change collaboration between the two countries has significant future potential, but it could not be detached from the broader Sino/U.S. relations.

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