Revisiting Last Week’s PCE DataHere’s a chart posted on X by LizAnn Sonders, Schwab’s strategist on the PCE data from last week , which shows Core PCE services ex-housing – a metric cited many times by Jerome Powell as something being watched by the Fed / FOMC – showing an uptick in July ’23.
Personally, I put a lot of weight on jobless claims because this release is frequent and timely in its use so I think it is very useful as an economic indicator, much more so than many others, like the monthly jobs report, which is actually two surveys – household and business – and subject to large revisions up to two months after the fact.The AGG 52-week low is $93.20;Frankly, this is still a solid economy, with the Atlanta GDPNowcast indicating a +5%growth estimate for Q3 ’23.
Noting the bond market’s various “annual returns” from 1 year through the last 15 years in this week’s blog post didn’t garner any attention, but the data looks somewhat bullish given the low returns, but you’d think that’s because the low yields from the last decade.