The stock-market seasonality trend has played out almost perfectly in the third quarter of 2023, with both August and September living up to their reputation as brutal months for U.S. stocks. But that seasonal weakness may set up a stock-market rally in the final quarter of the year, said longtime market strategists.
The latest surge in Treasury yields BX:TMUBMUSD10Y and the U.S. dollar DXY at a 10-month high against a basket of major currencies have conspired with seasonal weakness to knock the market down in September. While bullish trends in the dollar and yields have been underway for months, the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference last week accelerated the rally in rates and the greenback.
Ryan Belanger, founder and managing principal at Claro Advisors, said the fourth quarter of 2023, despite strong seasonal tailwinds, could be weaker than the historical average as market fundamentals are pointing to a recession. While many investors expect seasonal weakness to continue, Detrick of Carson Group does not count out a stock-market rally in the fourth quarter just yet.
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