Stocks and homes are still pricey because buyers think inflation will stay high

“ Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is essentially telling us that monetary policy may work its wonders if we are just patient.”

Moreover, the slow process of bringing down inflation risks that consumers’ and investors’ inflation expectations will remain well-above the Fed’s 2% target. It also limits the Fed’s flexibility for dealing with other challenges in the country’s banking and financial systems. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told us inflation was transitory when prices began to surge in 2021 and delayed acting until President Joe Biden nominated him for a second term. Now Powell is essentially telling us that monetary policy may work its wonders if we are just patient.

Inflation expectations are hardening It’s no surprise inflation expectations are hardening. The year-ahead expected inflation among consumers surveyed by the Conference Board has barely budged over the past seven months, and is currently at 5.7%. More behavioral evidence can be found in the market for new homes — existing homes are not turning over because too many homeowners have low-interest mortgages they don’t want to give up. New home sales have been rising despite higher rates on mortgages. If you expect 4% or 5% inflation, those rates don’t seem so steep.

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