) have been on a roller coaster ride, with dynamics constantly shifting due to various factors. Seasonal patterns, Federal Federal Reserve rate expectations, corporate earnings, inflation data, the AI technology boom, and more have all impacted market sentiment. In this election year, investors are left wondering how to gauge the trajectory of markets and how they have historically performed during similar periods.
We are tracking, uh, what we've, you know, put out there as a, as a sitting president market pattern. And I think it was 08, if memory serves, we asked them to put the best six months the binary by the last trading day of October sell the last trading day of of April versus the other way around. Uh but seasonality itself, which is, you know, where we are in the year contributes up to one third of the price action.For instance, this year, I know April usually strong in May week, we had to reverse this here.Um Well, we put out some, we did some studies on that and it's definitely a concern um for us, but we've had so much strength coming in, we had the five month run in negative April and positive May.
But, you know, over the long haul, um when we, we do a lot of like sector swing uh setups for um you know, stock sectors and even commodity related sectors with a lot of, a lot of it with ETF S, you're looking for the underlying stock or market or, or, or sector ETF to be tracking the seasonal pattern before you get, getting into it.
This is according to investopedia, seasonality is a character of a time series which could be stock prices in which the data experiences regular and predictable changes that recur every calendar year, any predictable fluctuation or pattern that recurs or repeats over a one year period is said to be seasonal.And I am personally guilty of conflating the two, I will say, uh, seasonals when it's really cyclical.
I used to underline the daily moves and barons with a red pen and a little short ruler that I still have and then added up on an adding machine with a graph paper back in the eighties and nineties. Um And to me, I find it amazing that despite all this HFT and Algo trading those patterns still tend to work where you see that lull around 2230 the rally to the close, you still gotta go to lunch and people still gonna need their, their coffee at, at, you know, just after lunch at two o'clock, which is lo so that's what I love about it that you can sort of see how the world what makes it tick.
I mean, we had our, our recession in 22 and our textbook midterm year bear market bottom in October, which, you know, has been the, the bear killer for, for, since my father named it that in 69.There's a lot of money coming from the government techno, I don't see a recession on the horizon. What should we expect as we get a little closer in terms of equities for people to start seeing and what's the seasonality there?So we can, it's just a bit of chop at sideways action once we get through the conventions and it's really decided who's run, like who's in the general election, then the market tends to begin to rally, um, especially after the election if we can get, you know, that's where the juice is the last time if we can get an actual decision on election...
Um, you know, I used to go down there like Monday night football was the night I would go downstairs with a little TV and ship all the books out to the brokers. It calls for and this calls for it, what, what can we expect can expect, um, more new highs at the end of the year.I'm getting concerned about 2025 being a post election year.
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