European election fever is running almost as hot as the Euro 2024 football tournament, as this weekend’s first round of voting in France promises to be market-moving, no matter what the outcome, while Britain may see its first left-of-centre government in 14 years.
The Federal Reserve held rates steady this month and pushed out the start of rate cuts to perhaps as late as December, as officials look for more convincing signs that inflation is moderating to the central bank’s target, or evidence that the employment market is worsening. Market jitters over fears of a spending surge have stabilized, helped by a signals from Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally , leading the polls, that it would be fiscally responsible.
The number of deals announced in Q2, 2024 is the lowest of the past 16 years, even worse than in Q2, 2020, when COVID-19 forced a worldwide pause in M&A activity. Traders see a return to stability after heavy political turbulence during the Conservatives’ 14-year rule and have speculated Labour leader Keir Starmer will rebuild trade links with Europe.
If voters expect better public services without tax hikes and investors want government borrowing to stabilize, Starmer could find it tough to keep both sets of stakeholders on side.Inflation readings across countries in emerging Asia scatter the data calendar, though with consumer prices seemingly coming to heel for most economies it begs the question of how much longer policymakers will need to keep rates higher for.