CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Is the bull market reaching the frothy, speculative stage that is the typical hallmark of a major top?
Consider a stock market sentiment index that was introduced 15 years ago by Harvard Business School professor Malcolm Baker and New York University finance professor Jeffrey Wurgler. In a landmark study published in the prestigious Journal of Finance, they reported that their index had an impressive historical record identifying periods of extreme bullishness or bearishness.
Furthermore, a +2.0 standard deviation reading sometimes is early—very early. The index rose above +2 in 1984, and yet the bull market continued for three years more years before succumbing to the 1987 crash.
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