Industry analyst predicts 2.04m new car sales in the UK next year

Industry analyst Cox Automotive’s latest new car sales forecast suggests the UK market will hit 2.04m units in 2025 – a 3.6% increase on 2024 but 11.6% less than the 2000-2019 average, which it described as, “an indication of future sector challenges”. The group, subsidiaries of which include Manheim Auctions, said those figures were its ‘baseline’ forecast. It also produced an ‘upside’ 2025 forecast of 2.3m units and a ‘downside’ of 1.74m.

” “Global vehicle production levels remain robust, but there is a growing mismatch between high production rates and the UK's ambitious ZEV targets. This disparity raises questions about OEMs’ commitment to meeting UK mandates, particularly as the ZEV rules pressure manufacturers to increase BEV shares.” The company also produced basic new car sales forecasts for 2026 and 2027, predicting a rise of 2% for both years to 2.15m and 2.16m units respectively.

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