Market Optimism and Risk Management

On Christmas Eve, Santa arrived, pushing the markets back above the important 50-DMA. However, the market sold off on Friday to successfully retest the 50-DMA. While it may seem that the market stalled, I suspect that we could see some buying next week as portfolio window dressing concludes and traders position portfolios in the first two days of January.

As shown, momentum and relative strength are weak currently, but if the market can break back above the 20-DMA, this should bring buyers into the market. As we noted previously, the sell signal keeps a lid on price appreciation, and until that reverses, there is limited upside to the markets over this week. There is also the 24% possibility that a rally fails to materialize entirely. We suggest managing portfolio risk until the market ultimately makes a decisive move.When yield spreads were this low previously, this equated to excessive optimism about financial market conditions. This is the same currently, as investors are willing to overpay for the risk they are taking on. Unfortunately, such has not ended well previously, but yield spreads will be the leading indicator for investors to reduce portfolio risk more aggressively. For now, optimism remains high. But as we will discuss today, that is also a problem we need to monitor closely., and, as is always the case, optimism for the coming year is very high. The median estimate is for the market to rise to 6600 next year, which would be a disappointing return of just 8.2% after two years of 20% plus gains. However, the high estimate from Wells Fargo (NYSE: Interestingly, optimism for 2025 has taken on an interesting twist. Over the last two years of above-average returns, earnings growth has come from just the top-7 market capitalization companies in the S&P 500 index. However, analysts now expect earnings to shift from the bottom 493 companies in the inde

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