In April last year I took a look at the market potential for a downturn that ultimately, never materialized. That scenario was negated by the break of the March high during the summer, followed by a sequence of higher highs and higher lows as part of a bull market cycle. So what will 2025 bring?First off, I took a look at search-sentiment.
How many people have searched for the term 'market crash' in the United States? More often than not, these spikes - when they occur - are more often associated with major market bottoms than market tops.we can see how nearby market lows turn into major market lows. The odd one out could be the June 2024 search spike as there was barely a pause in the advance, not something we have seen during other search-spikes, with the possibe exception of the February 2018 spike. However, what I do like about the 2024 spike is how it occurred around a solid psychological support of 5,000 in the S&P.After an extended period of near-zero interest rates caused by the credit crisis, we have now returned to a more typical rate rising cycle that brings with it the associated risk of recession. Historically, Fed rates are relatively low, although consumers voted for change during the election. Economic conditions are skewing more bearish, but there is room for Fed maneuver if needed.When we look more at breadth metrics we have a more mixed picture. The one chart that is screaming a major market low is the relationship between ETFs (originally featured by J.C. Parets). Supporting technicals in 2023 mirrored that of the low in 2009. Whether we have a secular low in place will become apparent in the months ahead, but it's a positive start., we see a downward trend as the Dow Transports drop back into their prior base while the Industrial Average kicks on. This trend shift suggest a cooling period is on the horizon, but when this relationship comes with a spike low, then a major market low will be in plac
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