that “the markets would crash” if he were to be impeached. Last year, he similarly said, “everybody would be very poor” if he was removed from office.
So far, the stock market has been largely unfazed by impeachment headlines: The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the day down slightly, by 0.30%. But since Monday’s open, the index has actually gained 0.14%. The S&P 500, on the other hand, fell 0.24% on Thursday and is now down 0.17% for the week.
Despite Trump’s claims, historical stock market data would suggest otherwise: “That’s something investors need to keep in mind,” says Mark Freeman, chief investment officer at Sororro Asset Management. “Knee-jerk reactions” in the market from impeachment talk are unlikely. Impeachment headlines will add pressure on Trump to complete a trade deal—even if a limited one—with China before his 2020 bid for re-election. “You only want to fight so many battles,” Freeman says.
There’s also the key consideration of whether Trump will be impeached or removed from office. As Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, points out, this is a “critical difference” for the market: Stocks plunged when Nixon was removed from office, while the market soared when Clinton got impeached.
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