September home sales surge signals the real estate market is returning to equilibrium

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Haider-Moranis Bulletin: While the industry has greeted the rebound with relief, the question of why is unclear

Housing markets in Toronto and Vancouver appear to be on the mend, as both gained strength over the summer and have posted a record increase in sales in the fall.

While the industry has greeted the rebound with relief, the question of why sales are bouncing back now is unclear. While the theory seems plausible, we believe SEMs are an unlikely catalyst. SEMs come with certain conditions. For one, the qualifying properties must be priced under $500,000 — a category that actually saw a five per cent decline in sales in Toronto on a year-over-year basis.

Somerville pointed out that the last month’s jump in sales in Vancouver comes following a down period in September 2018, when sales relative to the year before had collapsed by 43.5 per cent. The Vancouver market, in other words, is trying to regain what it had lost over the past couple of years.

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