In the wake of recent events, prediction markets are now assigning a high probability, or around 70%, to a Donald Trump re-election.
“Also, there are other offsets such as a stronger dollar, and potential US tax cuts/deregulation,” economists wrote. In terms of market impact, during the 2018-2019 tariff announcements, Emerging Markets were the worst performers, especially China. Europe was moderately affected, with Germany more impacted than France. The US, along with more defensive markets like the
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