A high school track coach once said that the secret to winning a sprint was to find the fastest kid on the track and try to get ahead of him.The federal funds futures market is pricingof the Federal Open Market Committee this year. Some investors think the Fed will begin with a bang, cutting 50 basis points in September, while others see a quarter point cut at each of the September and November meetings followed by a 50 basis point cut in December.
It’s hard to see what could justify that pace of cutting, especially because bond and equities markets are not pricing in anything like a serious downturn. The. Spreads between safer and riskier bonds do not show any evidence that investors think defaults or corporate bankruptcies are a serious threat.the odds of a recession are actually retreating
. After the Expectations Index for July revised up to 81.1, August marked the second consecutive month of the index above 80. That’s the threshold below which typically indicates a recession is looming in the future.signaled that the Fed is ready to make its first move in September, but he was equally careful to avoid endorsing any notion of a sharp downturn in the labor market. To the contrary, he emphasized that the Fed did not expect and would not welcomeand in the years after that.
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