Federal Reserve officials appear poised to repeat the mistake of September and November by cutting interest rates again when, speaking in Washington, expressed a tentative inclination to cut rates at the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee , citing data that could show inflation easing.
“At present I lean toward supporting a cut to the policy rate at our December meeting,” Waller said. “But that decision will depend on whether data that we will receive before then surprises to the upside and alters my forecast for the path of inflation.”This chorus of dovish sentiment would be understandable if the economy were in a tailspin, but it’s not. Gross domestic product expanded at a robust 2.8 percent annualized rate last quarter.
Officials should heed the lessons of the past. Monetary policy operates with a lag, meaning the full effects of this year’s rate hikes have yet to be felt. Cutting rates now would be akin to. The economy is growing, inflation remains above target, and the labor market is far from fragile. These are not conditions that call for easing monetary policy.
, officials can reinforce their credibility, maintain progress on inflation, and avoid a costly policy error. The choice is clear—if only they have the courage to make it.
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