Balance matters in financial markets, just as in football. A market in which bets are slanted in one direction is vulnerable to a big swing in prices the opposite way. Where positions are lopsided traders can be wrong-footed by even a tiny change in sentiment or in the news. Some of the recent volatility in global bond markets can be put down to skewed positioning. .
Before you go ahead, you would be wise to check how other traders are positioned. America’s Commodity Futures Trading Commission publishes regular reports on the positions of traders in currency futures and options. If, say, there were already a lot of euro shorts, you should feel less gung-ho. After all, if many traders have already sold the euro, there are fewer potential sellers to drive it down in the future. And there are perils when a lot of investors are betting one way.
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