Why January's CPI report could deal a massive blow to the stock market

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The January CPI reading is expected to show a 6.2% rise from a year earlier, slowing from a 6.5% year-over-year rise seen in the previous month, according to a survey of economists.

The stock market’s start-of-year rally is poised to fizzle if a highly-anticipated U.S. inflation report on Tuesday dashes hopes for a quicker retreat in the cost of living in America, warned market analysts.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s Inflation Nowcast is predicting a hotter-than-consensus CPI report. As of Monday, the Cleveland Fed’s model shows headline CPI to rise 0.65% month over month, or 6.5% on a yearly basis. For core CPI, the tracker estimates an 0.46% monthly increase and a 5.6% year over year advance.

A hotter-than-expected inflation reading on Tuesday could mark a turning point in the equity market’s expectations for inflation and interest rates, with “far-reaching implications,” said Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management. “If CPI does come in hotter than expected, the equity market may find itself on the wrong side of the trend again, just as it has several times over the past 12 months.”Adding to potential volatility is the new weightings for the CPI calculation by the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday.

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But what if corporations continue stock buy backs?

Why so

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U.S. stocks end sharply higher ahead of highly-anticipated CPI data on January inflationU.S. stocks finished sharply higher Monday, with gains led by the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite, as investors await fresh data from the consumer-price... Looks like the gov cooks leaked the number
منبع: MarketWatch - 🏆 3. / 97 ادامه مطلب »

The stock market will surge if Tuesday CPI report cools down as expectedThe stock market is poised to surge 2% on Tuesday if new inflation data cools down as expected, JPMorgan says
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