The S&P 500 SPX, +0.89% could beat inflation by 8% over the next 12 months. That cheery prospect emerges from an analysis of the U.S. stock market’s reaction to past banking panics. Though stocks not surprisingly declined in the immediate wake of those past crises, they almost always recovered quickly. On average a year later, the market was well above where it stood before the crisis erupted.
If the stock market follows a similar script in the wake of the current banking crisis, the S&P 500 will hit a low sometime this April or May and then rally strongly — eclipsing its early-March level by the end of the summer and, by March 2024, sitting on a double-digit gain in nominal terms over where it stood recently.
Probably the worst thing you can do, from an investment point of view, is to sell into a panic. Odds are good that, by doing that, you’ll get highly unfavorable outcomes. Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at [email protected]
Declining confidence in banks can be boon for the stock market.
It could… it also couldn’t… 🤷🏻♂️
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Beware of these S&P 500 stocks expected to struggleInvestors may want to consider dumping some stocks expected to underperform going forward, especially as market volatility remains elevated. Gold👍👍👍👍
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