“We expect labour market tightness to show signs of easing in Q1, with the unemployment rate edging higher to 3.6% from 3.4% in the previous quarter. We expect some disruption to the jobs market in Q1 given the impact of Cyclone Gabrielle and see flat employment growth over the quarter. However, a fall in the participation rate could help cap a rise in the unemployment rate. We expect private wages to rise at a still-firm pace of 1.
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