“I think we’re at an uncertain moment,” said Solomon of his current economic outlook. “I think it’s a period to be a little bit cautious.” Solomon forecast that the US economy could find itself in an environment “that might not be a recession, but it certainly would feel like a recession.” That would mean avoiding a hard landing but still muddling through “sluggish growth and sticky inflation,” he said.
About 65% of commercial real estate lending falls into the mid-sized banking system, he said. “In this environment, that will constrain additional lending. That makes capital more attractive and it crowds out some economic activity,” he said. “That’s just something we’re going to have to work through. There will probably be some bumps and some pain along the way for a number of participants.
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