Analysis: Wall Street's 'Magnificent Seven' face moment of truth as earnings season arrives

– have driven nearly all of the S&P 500’s 12% year-to-gain because of their outsized weighting in the index.

That appeared to be the case for Tesla, the first of the megacaps to report results this period. Shares of Tesla were down 7% on Thursday morning after the electric vehicle maker“Everybody knows these guys are going to make money," said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute , referring to the Magnificent Seven. "The only question is how fast is that earnings growth, and have investors overpaid for it.

In aggregate, the megacap companies are expected to post a 32.8% gain in earnings in 2023, while the rest of the S&P 500 sees a 2.3% decline, according to Tajinder Dhillon, senior research analyst at LSEG. The megacaps' outperformance this year means their market heft has also grown. The seven companies' combined market capitalization topped 30% of the S&P 500's overall market value earlier this month, according to LSEG Datastream.

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