An EU Carbon Tax Will Upend The Global LNG Market

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The global LNG market could face a sea change in prices and trade flows later this decade if the European Union includes LNG in its carbon border tax

. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism CBAM, commonly known as the “carbon border tax,” was launched on October 1 in the first transitional phase for imports of several carbon-intensive groups of products into the European Union. The first phase of the EU’s carbon import pricing legislation will not impose levies on the products—such will apply from 2026.

It remains to be seen how Europe will juggle its emission reduction targets with energy security. “If the EU decides to apply these levies, then this will push European gas prices up but also bifurcate the global LNG market, creating a two-tier LNG market,” said Massimo Di Odoardo, Vice President of Gas & LNG Research at Wood Mackenzie.

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