If a music festival has not shifted at least half of its tickets within the first 24 hours, the organisers know it is in trouble. If they respond to low sales by flooding the market with sponsored posts or paid advertising, the audience will soon know it too. And nothing deters a potential ticket purchaser like the smell of a dud event.
Even Golden Plains isn’t immune. The three-day single-stage camping festival, a sister event to Meredith, is always sold out well in advance, but for the first time in living memory tickets for this year’s iteration were trading hands well below face value on informal secondary sites in the weeks before.
A weak Australian dollar makes fees offered by festival promoters less attractive than they were, as does the fact that travel costs – often borne by the artist – are so high. Add the instability of the festival market to the equation, and it’s easy to see why some acts might prefer to go it alone. Danny Rogers, co-founder of Laneway, says line-ups are as much about creating a mix as having a strong headliner.
Veteran music journalist Mikey Cahill has been around long enough to see festivals come and go before. But this “feels different”, he says. “It’s hard to see Splendour coming back.”