Following Nvidia's earnings report on May 22, the AI stock surged nearly 20% in three days, a move that historically would have lifted the) or NVDA rising 20% in 3 days, either the shares were not yet a top 5 weight stock in the S&P 500 or those rallies moved the S&P 500 higher in tandem,” Evercore analysts wrote.The divergence is particularly striking given Nvidia's high correlation with the S&P 500, which stood at 0.
This, according to Evercore, further reinforces the notion of a"stockpicker's market." Historically, such troughs in correlation have led to significant market corrections, yet the recent period has been an exception. The 3-day surge of NVDA while the S&P 500 fell “is a catalyst for greater movement at the S&P 500 level ahead of other event catalysts,” continued Evercore analysts. These catalysts include the upcoming Trump trial verdict, core PCE inflation report, Nvidia’s stock split, CPI report, and the FOMC meeting next month.
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