Singapore banks’ earnings to be hit by rate cuts but bright spots remain

Although rate cuts will weigh on the banks’ margins, they will likely help to boost demand for loans and also strengthen market sentiment.

The bank’s net interest income is now less sensitive to interest rate changes. For every basis point of the US Fed funds rate, net interest income will change by $4 million, down from $18 million to $20 million in 2021. Although rate cuts will weigh on the banks’ margins, they will likely help to boost demand for loans and also strengthen market sentiment, which is good news for wealth management fees.

“A combination of stable net interest income and non-interest income recovery could see earnings hold up over coming quarters, which may offer some support for share prices, although a break above previous record highs may still seem unlikely,” he said. The Singapore banks are more sensitive to margins than volumes, he added. “So interest rate cuts could have a downside impact, while lending growth support would come with a lag.”

CreditSights Asia-Pacific research head Pramod Shenoi and analyst Karen Wu said fee income will remain strong on the back of increasing investment activities, card consumption and loan-related fees.

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