Investors will be watching closely to see if fresh data backs up Fed Chair Jerome Powell's claim of a resilient U.S. economy. Thursday's second-quarterWhile inflation has cooled, Powell remains cautious to declare victory just yet.
Implied volatility resets and market bets on both sides have made the unwinding process confusing. However, I believe that the noise will clear up this week.Last Friday’s options expiration, with the big gamma level at 5,700, was too strong for the equity market to trade freely. An interesting observation is that increasing short-sale volumes on a rolling 10-day basis can sometimes precede market downturns.
If the Yen carry trade effects have been neutralized, and the S&P 500 is trading with a lag to reserves, we should feel those effects this week. If those effects are not felt, perhaps reserve balances do not matter anymore. However, I sense that they still do. Remember, the market turned higher in the fall of 2019 because the Fed started “NOT QE,” which still led to expanding the balance sheet and reserves.
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