What needs to go right in 2025 for the market to justify Tesla's valuation and stock price

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Almost all of the gains in Tesla stock have come since Donald Trump's reelection, as investors reward Elon Musk's relationship with the president-elect.

Tesla stock staged a massive turnaround right after the November election. Sustaining this run into 2025 will require the electric vehicle behemoth to show progress on its long promised ambition of building a robotaxi business, analysts say. Tesla stock has soared 75% in 2024 – three times more than S & P 500 — after doubling in 2023. Nearly all of this year's gain has come in the six weeks since Donald Trump was elected the next president.

mountain Tesla shares in 2024. Tesla's underlying business has faced slumping demand for electric vehicles all year. Sales rose just 3.1% in the first 9 months of 2024 compared with same period a year ago, according to FactSet, far slower than the 18.8% sales growth from 2022 to 2023, and the 51.4% expansion from 2021 to 2022. Still, this might be bottom, with analysts polled by FactSet expecting year-over-year growth to rebound to nearly 18% in 2025.

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