Don't ignore the flood of annual market outlooks, forecasts, projections, and year-end targets. While most of them will likely be wrong, there's a market mechanism that can tell you which prognostications are likely to be correct and which are not. On the first day of every trading year, the market starts to tell us what it's likely to do next, and very often, it's not what the majority of investors have in mind going into the new year.
Markets tend to fool most people most of the time, but January is one of several months that can help anyone avoid that fate. RIAs will make better, more confident decisions and provide clients with clearer explanations to questions of 'why, when, and for how long' the market trends will persist, for better or worse. This January trend trade (JTT) can be used to build a stronger base case for placing bigger and better market-beating bets. You'll see how you could have used January to avoid the market collapse in early 2022, be confidently bullish in January 2023 (near the bear market low), and continue to be bullish as the market climbed higher in 2024. The predictive quality of January and this mechanism is powerful, but one of the biggest benefits of this is how it enables you to manage your risk. The popular 'January Effect' and 'As Goes January' stats and patterns are good ways to model market behavior, but they are very different than the January Calendar Range Trend Trade (JTT) mechanism that I'm about to share. For example, the January Effect assumes weak stocks (potentially due to tax selling) at the end of the year will tend to rally in the beginning of the next year. The MarketGauge January Trend Trade (JTT) doesn't assume that but will give you a way to capture it if and when it happens. The 'As Goes January' adage assumes the direction of some initial time period within January (5 days, the whole month, etc.) will predict the direction of the whole year
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Fed's Hammack: The market view of one cut between now and late January is reasonableFederal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack noted that while she believes it may be time for the Fed to begin slowing the pace of rate cuts, the Cleveland Fed head gave a nod to investors who are anticipating at least one more rate cut between now and the end of January.
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