Business Maverick: Why IMF assistance to SA is not a realistic expectation in the near term

The justifiable expansion in government spending that immediately followed the 2007/08 global financial crisis has been supplanted by a decade of loose fiscal policy and sub-par macroeconomic growth. Before accounting for the inevitable realisation of Eskom’s contingent liabilities to the fiscus, South Africa’s “lost decade” has resulted in the doubling of government debt – from 26% in the 2008/09 fiscal year to 57% at present.

However, the domestic economy is simply inadequately geared to sustainably grow in excess of 2.6% in the medium term, so we can largely discount this as a credible solution to achieving debt sustainability.

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