Outside of luxury, which is not relevant/affordable to 90% of travelers, there isn't a truly global brand, until now. Google searches reflect that Airbnb has eclipsed the equity of century-old brands, in one decade, across markets big and small. While competitors may have equity in a specific market, no brand sits on the iron throne across all markets as Airbnb does.
So, how to value the gangster of all private gangsters? What is the benchmark and the corresponding multiple? It's clearly not a hotel business, but not a SaaS firm either. However, Airbnb is a tech firm and highly "disruptive." The firm has a greater share of employees with an engineering background than Amazon or Uber.
In 2020, in the private markets, Airbnb shares have traded at a valuation ranging between $15-30 billion. The media pegs the IPO valuation at $30 billion. Put on your seatbelts, as the bankers will have no excuse to not price the shares at the high end of a recast range, and then reward their institutional clients with a Snowflake-like flurry when it begins trading. There's something about weather and cruise analogies that becomes more appealing as you get older.
It's difficult to identify another sector, this large, that has one player more ascendant while the rest of the industry can't touch its nose. The hospitality sector has experienced an unprecedented shock that dwarfs 9/11 or any recession. Recessions, even wars, take occupancy levels down to 60%, or even 50%. No hotel owner or management firm modeled occupancy dropping to 0%.
Airbnb pass
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