The US job market is in an interesting place. Despite a pick-up in jobs growth, payroll employment remains about 6.7 million its pre-pandemic peak and roughly 9.5 million below the trend if hiring had continued at the same pace, indicating a significant degree of slack. On the other hand, several widely followed metrics indicate a tighter labor market than meets the eye., the second-highest level on record after the last month.
Reactions to this boost in wage growth have ranged from celebration — real wage growth has been quite sluggish for many workers for years — to glib:"You're running a restaurant that can't pay up to find help? Find a new line of business."describe the current situationWhy is the current state of affairs not surprising? Demand for workers has surged. For example, job openings have jumped.
At this point, rooting for this dynamic to continue is like rooting for the negative supply shock in the labor market to not go away. If quits and wage rates accelerate from here, that would be more bad than good news at this point, indicating a slower return to normal in the labor market. Put another way, for wages to keep ripping higher, that means fewer people are coming back from unemployment. Those in the job market may gain, but at the expense of the people locked out.
I do not view this as a bad thing. In the years before the pandemic, quits were rising alongside rates of labor force participation. During the pandemic the two, somewhat uncharacteristically, went in opposite directions. The participation rate will rise.
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